alt="Tropical Depression TWO 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image"
width="500" height="400" />
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 18 Jun 2013 20:34:41 GMT
alt="Tropical Depression TWO 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities"
width="500" height="400" />
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 18 Jun 2013 21:03:44 GMT
Issued at 400 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
000 WTNT42 KNHC 182037 TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013 400 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013 A FEW HOURS AGO I WAS TEMPTED TO DECLARE THE DEPRESSION A REMNANT LOW. HOWEVER...CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE DATA FROM MEXICO STILL SHOWS A LARGE CIRCULATION WITH ENOUGH DEEP CONVECTION TO MAINTAIN THE STATUS AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION IS ALREADY OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE SOME CONVECTIVE BANDS ARE REDEVELOPING. ASSUMING THAT THE DEPRESSION MAINTAINS OR IMPROVES ITS CURRENT STRUCTURE...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS FOR A PORTION OF THE MEXICAN COAST WOULD BE REQUIRED THIS EVENING. THE INITIAL MOTION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS. THE CURRENT TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO BE REPLACED BY A NARROW RIDGE. THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN WESTWARD OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS OR SO...UNTIL THE DEPRESSION MOVES INLAND OVER MEXICO. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CENTER AND WHETHER THE CYCLONE DISSIPATES OR STRENGTHENS A LITTLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE PRIMARY CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND EASTERN MEXICO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 18.3N 91.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 18.7N 93.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 19/1800Z 19.0N 95.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 20/0600Z 19.0N 96.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 20/1800Z 19.0N 97.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUN 18 2013
000
FONT12 KNHC 182037
PWSAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013
2100 UTC TUE JUN 18 2013
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED 5 11 14 33 NA NA NA
TROP DEPRESSION 74 50 44 41 NA NA NA
TROPICAL STORM 21 38 41 25 NA NA NA
HURRICANE X 1 2 1 NA NA NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 X 1 2 1 NA NA NA
HUR CAT 2 X X X X NA NA NA
HUR CAT 3 X X X X NA NA NA
HUR CAT 4 X X X X NA NA NA
HUR CAT 5 X X X X NA NA NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 25KT 30KT 30KT 20KT NA NA NA
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
TUXPAN MX 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
VERACRUZ MX 34 X 9( 9) 12(21) 3(24) X(24) X(24) X(24)
VERACRUZ MX 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
FRONTERA MX 34 5 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
$$
FORECASTER AVILA